Goldman Sachs economists and experts share insights on macro trends shaping the global economy.
The sharp increase in confirmed coronavirus cases in the US Sun Belt has led investors to worry about renewed broad lockdowns with large negative effects on GDP. But there are other ways to reduce infections, and Goldman Sachs Research argues that a national mandate to wear face masks in public settings could partially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP.
Government deficits, debt issuance and debt levels are set to surge as countries race to ease the economic impact of the coronacrisis. This raises many questions: who will finance this debt, will it force a market repricing and/or an eventual growth or inflation problem, and would greater use of negative rates help avoid any of these risks? At the same time, whether corporate bankruptcies could derail the economic recovery is a key concern. In short, how disruptive the recent, dramatic shift in debt dynamics might be is Top of Mind.
Lotfi Karoui, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief credit strategist, discusses the state of corporate credit markets and his outlook for corporate defaults in the months ahead.
Heath Terry, Goldman Sachs Research’s business unit leader for the Technology, Media and Telecom Group, discusses his team’s new report “U.S. Reopening Scale,” which aggregates data across a wide range of consumer and business segments to quantify where the economy sits between full lockdown and a return to activity levels last seen before the COVID-19 outbreak.
Allison Nathan, senior strategist for Goldman Sachs Research, discusses her latest Top of Mind report where she speaks with leading experts across health and policy to understand how well-positioned the U.S. is to achieve a safe reopening of the economy and how quickly it would translate into economic recovery.
With mitigation measures leading to an apparent leveling off of case growth globally at the same time that the economic costs of such measures continue to mount, several countries around the world have begun to plan for—or have already started to implement—economic reopening. But absent herd immunity or a vaccine, such reopenings increase the risk of a resurgence. With this in mind, what a safe reopening might look like, how well-positioned the US is to achieve one and how quickly reopening would really translate into economic recovery is Top of Mind.
On the heels of a record low quarterly growth report out of China, the firm’s chief Asia economist Andrew Tilton discusses what the data mean for the country’s growth target and where we’re seeing signs of recovery.
Margaret Anadu of Goldman Sachs’ Urban Investment Group talks about how the pandemic is impacting small businesses in the US, and three entrepreneurs and graduates of Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses program share their personal stories.
In this episode of Talks at GS, Goldman Sachs’ Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani discusses the economic implications of the recently passed Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act with a group of leading economic experts.
Coronavirus has pushed the global economy into a recession of historic proportions and halted the longest-lasting equity bull market on record. As infections spread globally, economic activity collapses, markets recoil and policymakers respond, the depth and duration of the economic and market downturn is Top of Mind.
Susie Scher, co-head of the Global Financing Group in Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Division, discusses how companies are accessing capital in an uncertain environment.
Goldman Sachs Research’s Kamakshya Trivedi, co-head of global foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging markets strategy research, discusses indicators his team is watching to assess when markets will hit bottom.
Over the last few days social distancing measures have shut down normal life in much of the US. News reports point to a sudden surge in layoffs and a collapse in spending, both historic in size and speed, as well as shutdowns of many schools, stores, offices, manufacturing plants, and construction sites. These developments argue for a much sharper drop in GDP in Q1 and Q2.
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani on why she’s telling clients to stay invested in the stock market.
David Kostin, the firm’s chief US equity strategist, discusses what’s ahead for US equities in 2020.
Goldman Sachs Research expects China’s GDP growth to fall below 6% next year as policymakers focus on achieving higher-quality growth.
Goldman Sachs Research expects Asia-Pacific growth to gradually accelerate from 4.7% to 4.9% in 2020. Watch Video
Goldman Sachs Research expects a gradual pickup in eurozone growth from its current pace of 0.2% to 1.1% for 2020. Watch Video
In this episode of the Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs podcast, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan interviews former IMF Chief Economist, Olivier Blanchard, Harvard professor, Alberto Alesina, and Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist, Jan Hatzius. They discuss whether increased fiscal stimulus today would do more good than harm, and, even if it would, whether the economies that need it the most will pursue it. Learn More
Global GDP growth is poised to rise moderately from 3.1% in 2019 to 3.4% next year in Goldman Sachs Research’s view, led by easier financial conditions, a US-China trade détente, and reduced Brexit uncertainty. Learn More
Goldman Sachs’ Head of Energy Research Damien Courvalin explains why the oil market is much better positioned to deal with supply outages today, and thus is a less likely recession trigger than in the past. But the Council on Foreign Relations’ President, Richard Haass, and Columbia Professor Richard Nephew explain why instability looks set to rise in the Middle East and beyond. Learn More
President Trump has voiced concern that a strong Dollar is damaging US competitiveness. Whether the US should, could, and would begin to proactively manage the Dollar, and whether these actions—or further trade war escalation—could lead to a global “currency war” is Top of Mind. Learn More
Prachi Mishra, India chief economist for Goldman Sachs Research, Goldman Sachs, discusses the drivers behind India’s economy. Listen Now
Lotfi Karoui of Goldman Sachs Research explains what today’s credit markets indicate about the likelihood of a US recession. Listen Now
A review of the last 100 years of US recessions suggests that they can be boiled down to five major causes: industrial shocks, oil supply shocks, inflationary overheating followed by aggressive Fed tightening, private sector financial imbalances, and fiscal tightening. Read Report
Goldman Sachs Research expects below-trend growth in the Asia-Pacific region in 2019 as financial conditions tighten and global growth slows. Read Report and Watch Video