Allison Nathan of Goldman Sachs Research dives into macro developments that are top of mind for investors, executives and policymakers.
Amid the accelerating economic recovery, the largest US fiscal stimulus outside of war times and the Fed’s commitment to keep monetary policy very easy until higher inflation is sustained have stoked concerns that the US economy is set to overheat, sending US inflation expectations and bond yields higher.
The volatile start to 2021—with some heavily-shorted stocks unexpectedly skyrocketing in late January—seemed to have subsided. But with some of these stocks again on the rise, we ask what factors caused this volatility, how likely it is to repeat, what could prevent this, and what it signals about or for markets. We turn to former SEC Chair Arthur Levitt, Wellington’s Owen Lamont, Goldman Sachs’ co-head of Global Prime Services, Kevin Kelly, and Goldman Sachs Research strategists for answers.
The IPO market slammed shut in the first part of 2020 as pandemic uncertainty set in, only to open up with gusto in 2H even as risks around the virus and its economic impact remained high. This surprising strength following years of tepid IPO markets, as well as lofty valuations for newly public companies, have led to fears of an IPO “bubble”, especially in tech. Adding to these concerns has been a surge in IPOs via Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs)—public investment vehicles created to merge with a company, thereby bringing it public—which comprised over half of US IPOs in 2020.